The votes are in, and the headlines will spend months arguing about what comes next. Doing business in uncertain times comes down to the parts you control, and none of them were on the ballot.
Your cash, your books, your margins, your customers, and your people decide how 2027 goes for you. Owners who run those seven numbers well tend to have a good year under almost any outcome. Owners who don't end up waiting on Washington to fix something that was never Washington's to fix.
This post takes no side on who won. It's a list of seven non-negotiables you can check this week.
The 7 non-negotiables, in short:
- Know your cash runway in weeks.
- Run a 13-week cash forecast.
- Close your books by the 15th of every month.
- Know your margin by job, program, or property.
- Keep any one customer under 20% of revenue.
- Have a "what if" plan with triggers set in advance.
- Build a business that runs without you.
How do you keep doing business in uncertain times?
Focus on the numbers you control. Policy, rates, and headlines move on their own schedule. Cash, books, margins, customers, and people move when you move them. Owners who review those five every month can react in days instead of quarters.
Every serious playbook on this lands in the same place. The U.S. Chamber's CO guide starts with cash stress tests. A Forbes Business Council piece from August puts cash flow and access to credit first. The Rhode Island SBDC builds its whole plan around three simple scenarios. Nobody's list starts with predicting the news.
What does an owner who skips this look like?
Composite example based on the kinds of owners we work with; names and numbers changed.
Dana runs a residential HVAC company doing about $2.4M a year. Last fall, every customer call came with a question about the election, and she decided to "wait and see" before making any moves.
She didn't know her cash runway. Her books closed about 45 days late. One builder was 35% of her revenue. When that builder paused two subdivisions in January, Dana found out from her bank balance. She spent the spring covering payroll from a credit line she had to open in a hurry, at a worse rate than she could have locked in six months earlier.
Nothing about the election caused that. A slow month from one big customer did, and she had no early warning.
This year she runs the seven checks below. Same company, same market. Here's the list.
1. Do you know your cash runway in weeks?
Cash runway is how many weeks you could cover payroll, rent, and debt if revenue dropped by a third tomorrow. Divide your cash on hand by your weekly fixed costs. If the answer is under eight weeks, building that cushion comes first.
Most owners know their bank balance. Fewer know what it buys. A gym owner with $60,000 in the bank and $15,000 a week in fixed costs has four weeks. That number changes how you hire, how you price, and when you talk to your bank. Talk to your lender while things are good. The worst time to ask for a credit line is when you need it.
For a trades-specific look at where cash gets stuck, see why contractors struggle with cash flow.
2. Are you running a 13-week cash forecast?
A 13-week cash forecast lists every dollar you expect in and out, week by week, for the next quarter. It turns a surprise into a date on a calendar. Update it every Monday and you'll see a tight week a month before it hits.
It doesn't need software. A spreadsheet with receivables, payables, payroll, and debt payments, updated weekly, does the job. The goal is simple: the bank balance should never be the first place you learn something.
3. Do your books close by the 15th of every month?
Closed books mean last month's numbers are final and reviewed by the 15th. Late books mean every decision you make this month is based on a guess. In a fast-moving year, a 45-day lag is a 45-day blind spot.
The fix is a monthly close process with a date on it. Bank and card accounts reconciled, payroll booked, revenue matched to the month it was earned. If your bookkeeper can't hit the 15th, that's the first conversation to have.
4. Do you know your margin by job, program, or property?
Total profit can look fine while some of your work loses money. Margin by job, class, or property shows exactly where the profit comes from. When costs rise, you know which prices to change first.
A contractor who knows which job types make money can bid with confidence when material prices jump. A gym owner who knows profit per program can adjust schedules before cutting staff. A real estate operator with property-level reports knows which building to refinance and which to fix. If you're in the trades, start with job costing for contractors.
5. Is any one customer more than 20% of your revenue?
Customer concentration is your largest single customer as a share of revenue. Above about 20%, one decision you can't control can change your whole year. Bring it down by growing the rest of your book.
Dana's 35% builder is the classic case. The builder wasn't a bad customer. The risk was the share. Buyers see it the same way, which is why concentration shows up on every list of non-negotiables before you sell your business.
6. Do you have a "what if" plan with triggers set in advance?
A trigger plan decides now what you'll do if revenue drops 10%, 20%, or 30%. You make the hard calls while you're calm. When a trigger hits, you act that week instead of debating for a month.
Write three columns: the trigger, the action, and who owns it. At 10% down you might pause discretionary spending. At 20%, delay a hire and renegotiate a vendor term. At 30%, draw on the credit line you set up in step one. The U.S. Chamber suggests stress-testing 12 to 18 months of cash against scenarios like these.
Run the upside case too. If demand jumps, do you have the cash and crew to take the work?
7. Could your business run for two weeks without you?
A business that runs without you can absorb surprises because more than one person is watching. If every big customer, vendor, and decision goes through your phone, your capacity is the company's capacity.
Start with the relationships. Hand your top five customers to a foreman, manager, or lead coach. Write down the three decisions only you make today and teach one of them this quarter. It's the same work that makes a business worth more when you sell, and it's the core of what a fractional CFO helps owners build.
What should you check first?
Start with cash runway and a 13-week forecast. Those two tell you how much time you have. The other five tell you how to use it. Most owners can get both done in one afternoon with last month's bank statements.
If your books are behind, catching up comes before any of it. Every other number depends on them.
Frequently asked questions
Does the election change how I should run my business?
Possibly, depending on your industry, and it's worth watching any rule changes that affect you. The seven numbers above matter under every outcome, though. Owners who track them can adjust to new rules faster because they already know where their cash and margins stand.
How much cash reserve should a small business keep?
A common target is three to six months of fixed costs, and more if your revenue is seasonal or concentrated. Start by knowing your runway in weeks, then set a target that fits your business and your access to credit.
What is a recession proof business?
It's a business whose demand holds up when the economy slows, such as essential repairs or health services. No business is fully protected. Strong cash, clean books, and a spread-out customer base make almost any business more resilient.
What should I do if my revenue drops after the election?
Check your forecast, then follow the triggers you set in advance. Revenue dips often have a specific cause, such as one large customer pausing work. Find the cause first, then act on the trigger that matches the size of the drop.
Want a second set of eyes on your seven numbers?
Book a 30-minute call in the next two weeks, and we'll walk through your cash runway, your close, and your biggest risk together. You'll leave knowing which of the seven to fix first, whatever the next year brings. If you're also planning a sale, our advisory work covers that too.
About the author: Enoch Sng is Managing Partner of Black Lotus Financial Group. He started his finance career in 2019 in real estate private equity and later owned and operated one of the largest self-storage facilities in Utah. Today he helps small business owners with fractional CFO support, bookkeeping, cash flow, and exit prep.
Sources
- U.S. Chamber of Commerce CO, "6 Steps to Creating a Recession-Proof Business Plan," accessed November 4, 2026.
- Forbes Business Council, "The New Small Business Playbook For Uncertain Times," August 3, 2026.
- University of Rhode Island SBDC, "How Small Businesses Can Manage Tariff Uncertainty," accessed November 4, 2026.